Santa Barbara Real Estate Review - A Stronger Market

Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Sales - courtesy of Carol Kruckenberg

Jackie Walters, a fellow realtor at Village Properties, recently wrote an article for the Santa Barbara News-Press recapping our 2012 real estate market. Her overall sentiment was that our market was much stronger at the close of 2012, leading us into a bright 2013.

When looking at sales totals from over the past decade or so, a strong increase in the volume of sales can be noted for 2012. In fact, more homes and PUDs sold in 2012 than any other year since 2000. Sales were up 33% from 2011, even exceeding annual numbers during the height of the market in 2004-2005. The dollar volume for these sales was up nearly 55% from 2001, with over $1.7 billion residential real estate sales. Riskin Associates had a banner year, contributing over $220 million to that total.

Inventory has dropped steadily over the past twelve months, with little over 300 homes for sale from Carpinteria to Goleta. With 3.9 months of inventory market-wide, this shows a solid seller's market. In December, properties were on the market for an average of 56 days, dropping steeply from 101 days in December 2011.

High-end home sales, for properties priced over $5 million, increased almost 100% year-over-year. There were 25 such sales in 2011 compared with 48 in 2012. Many sellers adjusted their expectations on price, coinciding with a steady increase in buyers in the upper range.

Meanwhile cash sales are up, as some investors find local real estate a stronger investment than financial markets. The Cheif Economist of the California Aossication of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young, described our current market as "a buying opportunity that comes around only once in a generation." What an exciting prospect!

Promising Year End Real Estate Stats

December 2012 South County Santa Barbara Real Estate Sales

The Santa Barbara real estate numbers are in, and the end of 2012 is reporting a huge spike. Closed sales for South Santa Barbara County reached 275 in December, jumping 45% over the previous month, and up 62% over the same time last year. December closed sales were actually 22% higher than the county's previous 5 year peak in May 2012.  Looking ahead to 2013, the Santa Barbara MLS had 63 new listings, 22 price reductions and 32 pending sales last week, all double what we saw the first week of year. Nationwide, listing prices were up 5.1% year-over-year in December according to Truila. In fact 82% of major metro markets reported year-over-year listing price gains. This goes hand-in-hand with declining inventory, as December nationwide inventory dipped over 17% year-over-year. Four of the top ten cities with the largest asking price recovery were in California, while these same cities reported over a 50% decline in inventory.

90% of Home Buyers Use Online Search

Montecito-realestate.com

A new report resulting from a joint study between the National Association of Realtors and Google offers staggering statistics on the digital house hunt. Here are some highlights from the study...

• Online real estate search on Google.com increased 22% year-over-year
• Google's online real estate search increased a staggering 253% over the last four years
• 54% of buyers went straight to the web first to start their real estate search
• Google real estate related searches on mobile devices grew 120% year-over-year from 2011 to 2012
• 36% of new home shoppers use their mobile device for real estate searches while watching TV
• YouTube is the top video search destination for home buyers
• 75% of seniors use the internet to search for real estate

Santa Barbara named a top town for $10+ real estate

A recent CNBC report listed Santa Barbara as a top town for sales of $10 million homes. Santa Barbara tied for second place with Aspen, CO with thirteen homes selling for $10 million or more in 2012. Riskin Associates closed six of the thirteen $10+ million sales, representing sellers for three, buyers for two and both buyer/seller for one sale.  All six sales were in Montecito. The report also noted that the number of homes priced at $10 million or more continues to grow,  a good indicator for the coming year. There are currently 38 homes listed in the Santa Barbara MLS over $10 million, 22 of which are located in Montecito.

Santa Barbara County's Record Year

The November numbers are in from Santa Barbara County's CORT report, which charts monthly sales for both North and South county. Santa Barbara South County sales for 2012 are up a staggering 41% over 2011. Last month's sales were up 50% over the same month last year, and 90% over November 2007. Meanwhile, Rebecca Riskin & Associates has closed 32 sales year-to-date for a total of $218 million, four times the amount of sales in 2011.

2013 Housing Market Outlook

Freddie Mac released its December U.S. Economic and Housing Outlook today, with projections for the nation's housing market in 2013. As property values continue to strengthen in 2013, Freddie Mac expects U.S. house price indexes to rise by 2-3%. For the first half of 2013, long-term mortgage rates should remain near their record lows, which is good news to buyers struggling with low inventory and multiple offer situations. These buyers should still have some time to take advantage of low interest rates, as Freddie Mac expects long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates to remain below 4% next year. Finally, it projects mortgage refinancing to continue to grow in early 2013, but will eventually drop down from 2012 highs.

Buying vs. Renting in Santa Barbara County

Recent headlines have indicated that many markets show a better buying scenario when compared to rental costs. A recent report by Zillow studied the breakeven horizon for buying vs. renting in major markets across the country. The idea is that if buyers plan on staying in a home past the breakeven horizon, it becomes more financially advantageous to buy a property instead of renting. So what does this scenario look like in Santa Barbara County? Montecito has the longest breakeven horizon at 5.7 years, comparable to other high dollar markets like Manhattan. Santa Barbara came in at a projected 4.7 years. Zillow took into consideration all costs associated with buying a home and renting the same property to determine their breakeven horizon.

Home for the holidays

Home for the holidays can mean many things to many people. Consider your family traditions, the place where you grew up, your favorite holiday meals, and all the memories you've built over the years. Here's a peek into what it means to be home for the holidays in Montecito, California.

Santa Barbara named one of best housing markets

Need another reason to invest in real estate in Santa Barbara County? According to Fiserv Case-Shiller data, the Santa Barbara metro area will be one of the top 15 housing markets in the United States for the next five years.  Annualized growth from 2012 – 2017 is expected to exceed 8%. For a frame of reference, home prices nationwide are only expected to increase by 3.3% over the next five years. In fact, only five metro areas ranked higher than Santa Barbara in projected annualized growth. Yahoo! Finance ranked the top 15 cities by a combination of projected changes in home prices, median home prices and household income, unemployment rates and changes in home prices since their peak. Read more here...

Pending home sales at promising levels

As another good sign for the housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported another increase in pending home sales last month. The Pending Home Sales Index increased by over 5% in October, signalling the highest level in over five years. Pending home sales have risen for 18 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. A chief economist from the National Association of Realtors noted that we are finally feeling the impact of steady job creation and consumer confidence. Learn more here...

Record Real Estate Highs and Lows

Nationwide home prices are on the rise, posting the largest % gain in over two years. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the third quarter 3.6% increase year over year is the biggest jump in house prices since early 2010. In addition, home prices have increased for six consecutive months. The Wall Street Journal credits several factors for continued price increases, including an increase in rents, a decrease in foreclosures and distressed sales, and the lowest housing inventory in nearly 50 years.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates continue to fall, reaching new record lows last week for the second consecutive week as reported by Freddie Mac. 30 year fixed rates averaged a new low of 3.31%, down from 3.98% a year ago.

Delayed financing the new norm?

In real estate, all-cash buyers are king. It's common knowledge that buyers who come in with all-cash offers can close quickly and offer the most secure deals, often beating out other offers backed by conventional financing. But with recent mortgage rates at record lows, financing has also become very appealing. So which option should you choose?

A recent phenomenon called delayed financing is becoming a common practice of affluent buyers. Instead of deciding between bringing a strong, all-cash offer and the benefit of record-low financing, buyers are choosing both. With limited inventory and competitive bidding, these buyers are coming in with strong, all-cash offers, only to turn around and secure financing as soon escrow closes. Rarely used two years ago, delayed financing is becoming very popular in >$1 million coastal housing markets. To learn more, check out this recent Wall Street Journal article.

Lucky "8" Real Estate

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal featured lucky numbers in real estate. Apparently the number 4 is very unlucky for Asian buyers, similar to the word for "death." Both addresses and listing prices should avoid this number. On the other hand, the number 8 is very lucky, similar to the word "prosperity" or "wealth." Lucky for us, we have a listing with three 8's in the address! Our listing at 888 Lilac Drive is at the height of luxury and world-class quality, built as a toxin free home with timeless elegance. Perhaps it will bring a lucky buyer a lifetime of prosperity, along with endless ocean views, a swimmer's pool and Wimbledon standards lawn!

Where Do Our Buyers Come From?

A report titled "Who's Buying Homes in Santa Barbara County" was recently released following a local survey. The findings included the origin of buyers, primary or secondary home purchases, first time homebuyer stats and where sellers were moving on to. A total of fifteen realtors participated in the survey, providing details on 165 closed sales, while our own Village Properties provided data on 204 closed sales, all from the first half of 2012. The survey found that 69% of buyers came from the South Coast, while only 31% came from out of town. These numbers are consistent with the area's average over the past eight years that the survey has been conducted. Only 16% of buyers came from outside California, and an even smaller 4% came from outside the United States. Of the California buyers originating outside of Santa Barbara County, the majority came from the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

The survey also indicated that 58% of sellers appear to be downsizing, which is up 8% over the historical average. Also interesting to note, 36% of those downsizing indicated they are leaving the South Coast. While this may seem high, it's actually lower that the average calculated throughout the survey's history.

This got us to thinking....where do our buyers come from? As we specialize in Montecito properties of distinction, certainly our buyer base might look a bit different from the rest of Santa Barbara County. We pulled stats on our own 27 closed sales year-to-date and found the following. Only 22% of our buyers were local, as compared to Santa Barbara County's 69%. A much higher percentage of our buyers came from elsewhere in California. We also saw a higher percentage of international buyers, at 11% compared with the county's 4%. We plan to run the numbers again soon to keep tabs on specific high-end Montecito buyers.

October Santa Barbara Sales Statistics

Another spike in the Santa Barbara South County sales report for the month of October continues our streak of record real estate numbers this year. October sales grew 23% over the previous month, while numbers were up 66% over the same month last year. It also appears that closed sales picked up again this Fall, avoiding an early 4th quarter slump from years past. Perhaps buyers have taken the recent press coverage to heart regarding the quickly recovering local housing market.

Montecito Has 19th Most Expensive Zip Code

A recent article from Forbes listed Montecito as the 19th most expensive zip code in the nation. Montecito trailed markets like Los Altos, Beverly Hills and Rancho Santa Fe in California, while Manhattan's Upper East Side snagged the top spot.  The writers compiled their rankings with the help of a California company that tracks housing data, pulling pricing for more than 20,000 zip codes across the country for a 90 day period. The firm calculated the median asking price, median price change, average days on the market and local inventory. According to the report, the main factor driving today's listing prices in the most expensive zip codes this year is overall lack of inventory.

93108: Montecito, CA

Median home price: $3,236,765

Median price change: 3.6%

Average Days on Market: 228

Inventory: 194

Santa Barbara Market Makes Top 10 List Again

According to Realtor.com, western states continue to dominate the housing recovery in the third quarter of 2012. The site released its rankings of the top 10 turnaround towns, based on housing data from median list price increases, inventory levels and even employment rates. Santa Barbara was ranked 7th on Realtor.com's most recent list, while the metro area also made the Top 10 turnaround town list for the 2nd quarter of 2012. Western states especially have seen inventories continue to fall and median list prices increase year-over-year.

Santa Barbara's Stellar Market

More than anywhere else in the country, California metros are showing some of the largest year-over-year asking price increases according to Realtor.com. The Santa Barbara metro area tops that list, posting a 32.05% year over year increase, a staggering 6% higher than any other metro area nationwide. Complementing this trend, California metros are also posting some of the largest inventory declines.

September numbers are also in from CORT, confirming a continued improvement in Santa Barbara South County Sales over the past five years. Last month's closed sales were up 8% over September 2011. Here at Rebecca Riskin & Associates, we have had four closings in the past 30 days, with 3 more listings pending.

Santa Barbara Claims Another Top Spot as Market Turns Corner

This week's real estate press have been very encouraging. Reports show the nation's housing market posted the strongest growth in 6 years, with nationwide home prices up 4.6% from last August. It is also predicted that September prices will continue to rise across the country. Another report detailed existing home sales climbing about 9%  nationally in August from a year earlier. Mortgage rates have hit another record low, and the National Association of Realtors NAR estimates prices of existing homes will rise 10% cumulatively over the next two years.

Meanwhile, Santa Barbara continues to make headlines for its noteworthy increase in house prices. Realtor.com put together a list of the top 10 turnaround towns for the 2nd quarter of 2012, showing metropolitan areas with the fastest recovering housing markets.  Santa Barbara made the list at number 10, ranked by comparing year-over-year changes in median price, median age and size of the inventory. Our housing market moved 21% faster in Q2 2012 than it did for the same quarter last year, with inventory down 31% and list prices up almost 17%. We plan to continue to make headlines with more sales in the near future!

We've Gone Digital!

As you may have noticed, we've recently upgraded our printed, glossy brochures to electronic brochures for easy reading on the web! In this day and age, more and more buyers are looking to the web on their laptops, smart phones and tablets for up-to-the-minute information on real estate listings. In order to ensure that potential buyers can access all the information they desire instantly, they can now flip through our brochures electronically from our website. Our eBrochures also double as great marketing tools to email to agents and interested buyers on a whim. And while our beautiful oak display still hangs in the hallway of our Montecito office full of glamorous, glossy brochures, an equally beautiful digital credenza now hangs on our Facebook page. Each property's eBrochure can also be found on our website.