The legacy blog about all things luxury real estate by Riskin Partners Estate Group
The November numbers are in from Santa Barbara County's CORT report, which charts monthly sales for both North and South county. Santa Barbara South County sales for 2012 are up a staggering 41% over 2011. Last month's sales were up 50% over the same month last year, and 90% over November 2007. Meanwhile, Rebecca Riskin & Associates has closed 32 sales year-to-date for a total of $218 million, four times the amount of sales in 2011.
Freddie Mac released its December U.S. Economic and Housing Outlook today, with projections for the nation's housing market in 2013. As property values continue to strengthen in 2013, Freddie Mac expects U.S. house price indexes to rise by 2-3%. For the first half of 2013, long-term mortgage rates should remain near their record lows, which is good news to buyers struggling with low inventory and multiple offer situations. These buyers should still have some time to take advantage of low interest rates, as Freddie Mac expects long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates to remain below 4% next year. Finally, it projects mortgage refinancing to continue to grow in early 2013, but will eventually drop down from 2012 highs.
As the second installment to our 2012 Montecito Luxury Holiday Gift Guide, here's a look at some fabulous gifts for him. Happy Holidays! PART 2: FOR HIM
1. With warmer temps and a year-round outdoor lifestyle, what Montecito guy wouldn't want his very own outdoor gourmet pizza oven? This little beauty will be the hit of the party, and blends in fabulously with other stainless steel outdoor kitchen hardware. Its gas flame mimics the heat of a wood-burning pizza oven, and can cook a perfect neopolitan-style pizza in just 3 minutes. Kalamazoo Outdoor Gourmet Artisan Fire Pizza Oven, $6,495
2. If Tom Brady is wearing UGGS, perhaps your guy will want to? While UGGS may still be a brand that registers primarily with women, the Santa Barbara based company has stylishly expanded their men's line. These cozy velvet slippers are irresistible, complete with the infamous sheepskin lining. UGG Mens Ascot Velvet Slippers, $130
3. The perfect stocking stuffer for guys of all ages! Saxs Fifth Avenue has stocked up on the ultimate man refuelling system, complete with face wash, shave cream, moisturizer, lip balm, soap and hand salve. Kiehl's Since 1891 Ultimate Man Refuelling System, $58
4. What Montecito holiday isn't complete without a trip to the beach? Stylize your man with Ray-Ban's latest twist on their classic aviator style with luxurious leather touches, available at Nordstrom. Ray-Ban 'Outdoorsman' 58mm Polarized Aviator Sunglasses, $239
5. Generally the waves are great this time of year on the Central Coast. These locally made custom wood surfboards are as light as foam boards but should last a lifetime and look amazing. Made with a 100% recycled foam core and highly sustainable wood, the Sugar Glider is a classic longboard available between 9' and 9'8". Timberline Surfboards Custom Sugar Glider Longboard, $1,800
Recent headlines have indicated that many markets show a better buying scenario when compared to rental costs. A recent report by Zillow studied the breakeven horizon for buying vs. renting in major markets across the country. The idea is that if buyers plan on staying in a home past the breakeven horizon, it becomes more financially advantageous to buy a property instead of renting. So what does this scenario look like in Santa Barbara County? Montecito has the longest breakeven horizon at 5.7 years, comparable to other high dollar markets like Manhattan. Santa Barbara came in at a projected 4.7 years. Zillow took into consideration all costs associated with buying a home and renting the same property to determine their breakeven horizon.
Home for the holidays can mean many things to many people. Consider your family traditions, the place where you grew up, your favorite holiday meals, and all the memories you've built over the years. Here's a peek into what it means to be home for the holidays in Montecito, California.
Need another reason to invest in real estate in Santa Barbara County? According to Fiserv Case-Shiller data, the Santa Barbara metro area will be one of the top 15 housing markets in the United States for the next five years. Annualized growth from 2012 – 2017 is expected to exceed 8%. For a frame of reference, home prices nationwide are only expected to increase by 3.3% over the next five years. In fact, only five metro areas ranked higher than Santa Barbara in projected annualized growth. Yahoo! Finance ranked the top 15 cities by a combination of projected changes in home prices, median home prices and household income, unemployment rates and changes in home prices since their peak. Read more here...
To get everyone it the mood for the holiday season, we've put together a 2012 Montecito Luxury Holiday Gift Guide. Each week we'll cover a new topic, including gifts for the home, him and her. Happy Holidays! PART 1: DECK THE HALLS
1. This year succulents have become in staple in home decor, adding beautiful accents in seaside communities such as Santa Barbara and Montecito. This gorgeous faux succulent wreath by Botanik of neighboring Summerland is the perfect addition to holiday decor and will last year after year. Botanik Succulent Wreath $195
2. What could be more luxurious than toasting family and friends with a crystal-clad champagne flute? Swarovski Crystalline Toasting Flutes, $390
3. Don't forget the perfect wine for your upcoming holiday parties. Look locally for a varietal that will wow even the most discerning guest. Just this year, Wine Spectator awarded Vogelzang Vineyards with an outstanding rating for their 2010 Sauvignon Blanc Reserve, receiving 92 points. In sunny Santa Barbara, a Sauvignon Blanc pairs perfectly with appetizers and seafood even during the winter holidays. Want to really impress your guests? Purchase the entire 180-acre Santa Ynez Valley Vogelzang Vineyard, currently listed with Rebecca Riskin & Associates. 2010 Vogelzang Vineyard Sauvignon Blanc Reserve (12 bottles), $384; Vogelzang Vineyard, Happy Canyon, $7,250,000
4. When decking the halls, don't forget to deck your pooch! To make a real impression at your next holiday gathering, fasten this striking genuine leather bow tie on your favorite four-legged friend and turn on the charm. D.O.G. Pet Boutique Bow Wow Tie Collar, $69.95
5. Deck the halls of your Santa Barbara or Montecito Beach Home with a fabulous driftwood tree. Restoration Hardware's decorative trees are handcrafted by artisans with natural driftwood and promise to provide the perfect touch of seaside shabby chic. Restoration Hardware Driftwood Tree (35"), $125
As another good sign for the housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported another increase in pending home sales last month. The Pending Home Sales Index increased by over 5% in October, signalling the highest level in over five years. Pending home sales have risen for 18 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. A chief economist from the National Association of Realtors noted that we are finally feeling the impact of steady job creation and consumer confidence. Learn more here...
Nationwide home prices are on the rise, posting the largest % gain in over two years. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the third quarter 3.6% increase year over year is the biggest jump in house prices since early 2010. In addition, home prices have increased for six consecutive months. The Wall Street Journal credits several factors for continued price increases, including an increase in rents, a decrease in foreclosures and distressed sales, and the lowest housing inventory in nearly 50 years.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates continue to fall, reaching new record lows last week for the second consecutive week as reported by Freddie Mac. 30 year fixed rates averaged a new low of 3.31%, down from 3.98% a year ago.
In real estate, all-cash buyers are king. It's common knowledge that buyers who come in with all-cash offers can close quickly and offer the most secure deals, often beating out other offers backed by conventional financing. But with recent mortgage rates at record lows, financing has also become very appealing. So which option should you choose?
A recent phenomenon called delayed financing is becoming a common practice of affluent buyers. Instead of deciding between bringing a strong, all-cash offer and the benefit of record-low financing, buyers are choosing both. With limited inventory and competitive bidding, these buyers are coming in with strong, all-cash offers, only to turn around and secure financing as soon escrow closes. Rarely used two years ago, delayed financing is becoming very popular in >$1 million coastal housing markets. To learn more, check out this recent Wall Street Journal article.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal featured lucky numbers in real estate. Apparently the number 4 is very unlucky for Asian buyers, similar to the word for "death." Both addresses and listing prices should avoid this number. On the other hand, the number 8 is very lucky, similar to the word "prosperity" or "wealth." Lucky for us, we have a listing with three 8's in the address! Our listing at 888 Lilac Drive is at the height of luxury and world-class quality, built as a toxin free home with timeless elegance. Perhaps it will bring a lucky buyer a lifetime of prosperity, along with endless ocean views, a swimmer's pool and Wimbledon standards lawn!
A report titled "Who's Buying Homes in Santa Barbara County" was recently released following a local survey. The findings included the origin of buyers, primary or secondary home purchases, first time homebuyer stats and where sellers were moving on to. A total of fifteen realtors participated in the survey, providing details on 165 closed sales, while our own Village Properties provided data on 204 closed sales, all from the first half of 2012. The survey found that 69% of buyers came from the South Coast, while only 31% came from out of town. These numbers are consistent with the area's average over the past eight years that the survey has been conducted. Only 16% of buyers came from outside California, and an even smaller 4% came from outside the United States. Of the California buyers originating outside of Santa Barbara County, the majority came from the Bay Area and Los Angeles.
The survey also indicated that 58% of sellers appear to be downsizing, which is up 8% over the historical average. Also interesting to note, 36% of those downsizing indicated they are leaving the South Coast. While this may seem high, it's actually lower that the average calculated throughout the survey's history.
This got us to thinking....where do our buyers come from? As we specialize in Montecito properties of distinction, certainly our buyer base might look a bit different from the rest of Santa Barbara County. We pulled stats on our own 27 closed sales year-to-date and found the following. Only 22% of our buyers were local, as compared to Santa Barbara County's 69%. A much higher percentage of our buyers came from elsewhere in California. We also saw a higher percentage of international buyers, at 11% compared with the county's 4%. We plan to run the numbers again soon to keep tabs on specific high-end Montecito buyers.
Another spike in the Santa Barbara South County sales report for the month of October continues our streak of record real estate numbers this year. October sales grew 23% over the previous month, while numbers were up 66% over the same month last year. It also appears that closed sales picked up again this Fall, avoiding an early 4th quarter slump from years past. Perhaps buyers have taken the recent press coverage to heart regarding the quickly recovering local housing market.
A recent article from Forbes listed Montecito as the 19th most expensive zip code in the nation. Montecito trailed markets like Los Altos, Beverly Hills and Rancho Santa Fe in California, while Manhattan's Upper East Side snagged the top spot. The writers compiled their rankings with the help of a California company that tracks housing data, pulling pricing for more than 20,000 zip codes across the country for a 90 day period. The firm calculated the median asking price, median price change, average days on the market and local inventory. According to the report, the main factor driving today's listing prices in the most expensive zip codes this year is overall lack of inventory.
93108: Montecito, CA
Median home price: $3,236,765
Median price change: 3.6%
Average Days on Market: 228
Inventory: 194
According to Realtor.com, western states continue to dominate the housing recovery in the third quarter of 2012. The site released its rankings of the top 10 turnaround towns, based on housing data from median list price increases, inventory levels and even employment rates. Santa Barbara was ranked 7th on Realtor.com's most recent list, while the metro area also made the Top 10 turnaround town list for the 2nd quarter of 2012. Western states especially have seen inventories continue to fall and median list prices increase year-over-year.
More than anywhere else in the country, California metros are showing some of the largest year-over-year asking price increases according to Realtor.com. The Santa Barbara metro area tops that list, posting a 32.05% year over year increase, a staggering 6% higher than any other metro area nationwide. Complementing this trend, California metros are also posting some of the largest inventory declines.
September numbers are also in from CORT, confirming a continued improvement in Santa Barbara South County Sales over the past five years. Last month's closed sales were up 8% over September 2011. Here at Rebecca Riskin & Associates, we have had four closings in the past 30 days, with 3 more listings pending. 
This week's real estate press have been very encouraging. Reports show the nation's housing market posted the strongest growth in 6 years, with nationwide home prices up 4.6% from last August. It is also predicted that September prices will continue to rise across the country. Another report detailed existing home sales climbing about 9% nationally in August from a year earlier. Mortgage rates have hit another record low, and the National Association of Realtors NAR estimates prices of existing homes will rise 10% cumulatively over the next two years.
Meanwhile, Santa Barbara continues to make headlines for its noteworthy increase in house prices. Realtor.com put together a list of the top 10 turnaround towns for the 2nd quarter of 2012, showing metropolitan areas with the fastest recovering housing markets. Santa Barbara made the list at number 10, ranked by comparing year-over-year changes in median price, median age and size of the inventory. Our housing market moved 21% faster in Q2 2012 than it did for the same quarter last year, with inventory down 31% and list prices up almost 17%. We plan to continue to make headlines with more sales in the near future!
As you may have noticed, we've recently upgraded our printed, glossy brochures to electronic brochures for easy reading on the web! In this day and age, more and more buyers are looking to the web on their laptops, smart phones and tablets for up-to-the-minute information on real estate listings. In order to ensure that potential buyers can access all the information they desire instantly, they can now flip through our brochures electronically from our website. Our eBrochures also double as great marketing tools to email to agents and interested buyers on a whim. And while our beautiful oak display still hangs in the hallway of our Montecito office full of glamorous, glossy brochures, an equally beautiful digital credenza now hangs on our Facebook page. Each property's eBrochure can also be found on our website.
If anyone needs proof that the local real estate market has improved, take our sales record this week as a signal. Rebecca Riskin & Associates will close four escrows this week, a 2012 record for the team. With a flurry of activity over the summer months, the team not only took on more listings but received more offers. All four sales were the team's own listings, while two of the transactions were both buyer and seller represented. Meanwhile, Rebecca Riskin & Associates has had five new listings within the past month, including two pocket listings.
A new report released this week from Realtor.com ranks the Santa Barbara metro area as the top region in the country for annual list price increases. Perhaps the high-end Montecito market is driving this number up, as we have seen a resurgence in the $10 million + market with 10 sales closed above this mark already this year. For the month of August, Santa Barbara had the 2nd fastest rising list price increase, with 5.34% month-over-month.
Statewide, California seams to be leading the way for current housing market stability. California was home to 8 of the top 10 metros for year-over-year inventory reductions and 5 of the top 10 metros for year-over-year list price increases last month. In Santa Barbara, inventory is down considerably as our market heats up. Recent numbers from Realtor.com reveal a 35% decrease in inventory year-over-year for the Santa Barbara metro area. To learn more, click here.
